Seattle Craigslist vs. Microsoft Expo: Don't Ape the Mojo!

If there's one constant in this life, it's change. If there's two, they're "change" and "people that think they can beat Craigslist at its own game." Scientists at NASA recently proved a theory that describes the unshakable power that Craigslist wields. It's called the Theory of Craigslist Mojo, henceforth "TCM." Being mostly "math guys," the scientists have asked me to explain the major tenants of TCM here, in hopes that I might be able to save others from thinking they can ape the mojo. Listen, you can't ape the mojo. It's a violation of TCM. On behalf of NASA, I will now try my best to illuminate the findings of their life's work. Google "Craigslist alternatives," and at any given time you will find 20 companies, most of which are less than a year old, trying to out-feature or out-gimmick Craigslist. You forgive these entrepreneurs for trying; better that the momentary lapse of judgment led them to believe they could out-feature Craigslist than that they could drive home after twelve beers. After all, the common mantra in software for the last ten years has been that "more features = better." By this standard, a seventh grader could build a "better" Craigslist over the weekend. If it weren't for TCM, a new and better Craigslist would dominate the market every few months. It is thus TCM that ensures the stability of the Internet, and in turn, the universe. Why did you think NASA got involved with this, anyway? Not understanding TCM, Microsoft Itself recently challenged its tenants. Could they debunk TCM? They brought the resources (both in money and users) to stand a chance, it seemed. In 2005, they launched their "Expo" service (later renamed "Live Expo", because, as you know, the word "Live" makes any web service irresistible) to much fanfare... on the Microsoft campus. While Expo experienced rapid adoption inside of Microsoft, it's launch was greeted by a mixture of curiosity and apathy for everyone else. How could that be, they wondered, when Expo had all the features of Craigslist, plus pictures in the search results? I remember when I first heard from a friend that Microsoft was in the online classifieds space, and thinking I had somehow missed the existence of a powerful competitor. I rushed home to enter "expo.com" into my browser, and was taken to a home design site. OK, so they can't get their own domain name. That's fine, seattle.craigslist.org isn't exactly the catchiest URL either. So I Googled "Microsoft Expo," and found it... SECOND PLACE on Google for its OWN NAME. I clicked on the link and got my first glimpse of a multi-billion dollar company that did not understand you can not ape the mojo. How do you spot a company that doesn't understand the tenants of TCM? Scientists have boiled it down the following -- go to site's home page, and count how many of the following elements the page has:

1. Home page is pure text (or very nearly so)
2. Home page has an event calendar, services, classifieds, and message board
3. Home page lets you conduct a local-centric search in a particular city

If the site you're looking at has two of the three, you are at a site that thinks it can beat Craigslist at its own game. By the principles of TCM, this site cannot continue to coexist with Craigslist. "You know, like matter and anti-matter," I was instructed to explain. This site will probably fold within the next year or two. When I went to Expo, and saw they had gone three for three, it was clear to me they hadn't received word of TCM. They were doomed from day one. And sure enough, after having forgotten about Expo for a few months, I stopped by a month ago and saw a notice on their site that they were throwing in the towel. Expo would be closing at the beginning of July 2008. They got tired of losing money when they realized can't nobody ape the mojo. TCM is why journalists love to write about Craigslist. Craigslists' very existence defies the known laws of commerce, logic, and many branches of quantum physics. When Craigslist launched 10 years ago, if you would have asked 100 people which they thought was more likely: that Craigslist would dominate local selling for the next ten years, or that the Internet itself would prove to be a fad, you'd probably have gotten an even split. These days, TCM assures that Craigslist occupies a mythical, nearly unassailable status amongst much of its enormous user base. What does this mean for the Kijijis and Backpages and OLXs of today that have not yet given up the fight to ape the mojo? It is the ultimate field test of TCM, because with eBay pumping as many millions into promoting Kijijjiji as it is suing Craigslist, they are desperate to prove that TCM can be violated by the rival theory of Millions of Bucks Buys Users (MBBU). For my part, I hope they're wrong. On Bonanzle, you'll notice that though we want to help people sell items locally, and though our #1 priority is simplicity, we have no aspirations to ape the mojo. Craigslist's model works fine for the type of person that likes total anonymity, or for a person that has only an item or two to sell. However, we think there is space in the universe for a marketplace that's easier and more social, and when we do reach the critical mass that Craigslist takes us seriously, I hope that we can collaborate with them to share listings and let people be able to search and use the sites interchangeably. So long as the laws of TCM are at work, the world shall remain forever safe from the otherwise powerful Theory of Inevitable Fee Increases.